NFL Playoff Edition: Wildcard Weekend

It's time for a little NFL Wildcard Playoff preview. I'll do a little write-up on the Birds/Packers game, and then give some predictions on the rest of Sunday's games.

Packers at Eagles

To start off, I will try to take as objective a point of view as is possible. Yes, it will be difficult. But, in my honest opinion, this is a winnable game for both teams. Green Bay clearly has the better defense which ranked 2nd overall by giving up only 15 points a game while the Birds have struggled all year long yielding 23.6. However, they will still have their work cut out for them dealing with the explosiveness of the Eagles offense which ranked 2nd in the NFL by averaging almost 28 pts and 390 yards per game. The Pack put up a respectable  358 yards per game, but they were much more of a one sided attack after the season ending injury to Ryan Grant in Week 1. While the Eagles averaged 244 yds passing and 145 rushing, the Pack aired it out for 258 yards but only rushing for 100 yards per game. This discrepancy could come back to haunt the Packers especially given the amount of pressure the Birds were able to bring on Aaron Rodgers in their week 1 meeting where he was sacked 3 times and threw 2 interceptions. Here are the factors that I think will be most important, and  will ultimately decide the winner:

The turnover battle

In my opinion, most crucial factor in this game is the turnover battle.  The Birds are 8-1 this season when they win the turnover battle. Through the first 10 games of the season they had no problem holding onto the ball. The same cannot be said for the last couple of weeks as Mike Vick has come back down to earth and shown his vulnerability to fumbles (9 times in weeks 11-16). The one bright side is Vick has yet to have a multiple interception game so far this season, compared to Rodgers' 3 games. Both team defenses are opportunistic when it comes to interceptions, with the Birds snatching 23 and the Pack picking off 24 passes this season. Both teams also do a relatively good job at forcing fumbles as well, still the Pack do have 4 more on the season. Overall, you have to give the advantage to Green Bay simply because they have more playmakers on defense and a QB on offense that simply does not turn the ball over. Still, anything can happen in the playoffs (see Aaron Rodgers against Arizona) and I'll stick to my point that whichever team wins the turnover battle, wins the game.

The redzone battle

This is fairly obvious, but I will lay it out for you anyways. The Eagles boast one of the leagues worst red zone defenses, allowing opponents to score TD's 76.7% of the time when inside the 20 yard line. The Packers own the NFL's sixth best red zone offense. The numbers don't lie, if the Birds can't stop Aaron Rodgers in the red zone, they will not win this game. Also, they can't lose track of Rodgers down near the goal line, his 13 career rushing TD's show that he's not afraid to pull it down and make plays with his feet as well.

The run game

The Eagles are 5th in the NFL in rushing (wow, never thought I'd type that blurb so long as Andy Reid was coach of the Eagles) led by Lesean McCoy's breakout year (5.2 yds/carry, 1,672 total yds). The Pack have struggled all year after Grant's injury, ranking 24th in the league led by a combination of Brandon Jackson and John Kuhn. Clearly this already spells advantage Eagles, and we haven't even mentioned Mike Vick (676 yds, 9 TD's). For the Eagles to have a chance at penetrating the tough Packers defense, they must take advantage of their improved rushing attack (the Pack allow 4.7 yds/carry on defense). *UPDATE* - hopefully they actually follow through with the game plan, instead of abandoning it after the first 10 plays. If McCoy gets 20 carries, I think we're in good shape.

Home field advantage

Though the Eagles didn't get the #1 or #2 seed they had been in position to obtain, they still lucked out with a home game in the first round due to their securing yet another NFC East Division title (what time do the Giants play by the way?). They need to take advantage of the atmosphere that comes with Philadelphia post-season play and get the crowd into the game early. If the Eagles offense comes out flat then it will give the Pack a window to suck the excitement out of the stadium, something that will definitely not help their chances.

Playoff experience

Andy Reid Playoff Record 10-8 (3-0 in Wildcard playoff games at home)

Mike McCarthy Playoff Record 1-2

Say what you want about Andy Reid's post season success, but the man has coached a shit-load of playoff games in the last 10 years. To me, regardless of wins or losses, that means something. I think McCarthy is a hell of a football coach and I have always been a proponent of the 3-4 defense that Dom Capers instilled, but the playoffs are an entire different animal. You probably remember McCarthy's last two post-season losses because they were both memorable ones. In 2007 the Pack had a chance to knock off the Giants who were en-route to their Super Bowl victory (gag) over the Patriots but Mason Crosby choked the game away in Green Bay. More recently, the Pack lost that ridiculous wildcard game to the Cardinals in overtime, which ended up being the highest scoring game in NFL postseason history. Either way you look at it, the Pack had chances to win those games, and failed to come through. I should also mention that was Aaron Rodgers only post-season start, a game which he lost by fumbling into the hands of Karlos Dansby (Additional stat nugget for you all, Aaron Rodgers is 0-5 in ovetime games for his career). So, while Andy Reid has been doing that for about a decade, Mike McCarthy isn't all that much better. All-in-all, you have to like your chances with a coach who has been there before and knows what it takes to get to a Super Bowl. Now all we have to do is win one. Please.

Rest of the weekend games...

Saints @ Seahawks

Saints have way too much firepower for the Seahawks. Not to mention the Seahawks are TERRIBLE. I refuse to write, or research for that matter, any more about Seattle. Ugh.

Saints 34 - Seahawks 13

Jets @ Colts

Yikes, hello AFC Championship rematch. What a game. I think the Jets are a better team then the one who lost to Indy last year, but still not good enough to overcome Peyton Manning at home. The Jets defense just has not looked like the beast they were last year and if you can't get to Peyton Manning, you're not going to win the ball game. I don't care what "island" you have, if Revis is all over Reggie Wayne, Peyton will find another way to beat you, bottom line.

Colts 27 - Jets 17

Ravens @ Chiefs

What a juicy game. First Chiefs playoff game in ........ 20 years? Just kidding, it hasnt been that long, they were a wildcard seed in 2006. But, it almost feels like that long. The Chiefs have been down for quite some time, but they stepped up this year behind an efficient Matt Cassell and a breakout year from Jamaal Charles. However, I don't see them being able to take down the Ravens and their vaunted defense. Ray Lewis and Co. are getting older, but they still bring it every day and know how to force turnovers, something that can derail a ball control offense like that of the Chiefs. Outside of Dwayne Bowe and Charles, the Chiefs don't have many options to go to and I see that limiting them in this game. Their defense is very opportunistic, but not dominant in any aspect of the game. Expect a big game from Joe Flacco, he has shown the ability to lead in the playoffs and has more weapons at his disposal this year then the previous two.

Ravens 28 - Chiefs 20

Is the first round bye really that important?

Read a great article this morning, compliments of Wayne Sidor, laying out just how the Eagles secured their spot in the 2010/2011 NFL playoffs. I, like many other Eagle faithful, enjoyed watching the New York Giants playoff hopes erupt into flames yesterday afternoon. To boot, the loss not only assured they will not have a chance to compete this post-season (not technically, they can still slip in with a win against Washington and a Green Bay loss to the Bears), but also assured the Eagles a spot in the NFC playoffs. How sweet it is.

But, the Chicago Bears managed again (to my disbelief) to eek out a win over the Jets, meaning they are in line for a bye in the first round of the playoffs. Still, the Eagles still haven't been mathematically eliminated from contention for the bye. To quote the CSN article:

"The Eagles can still earn a bye if they win their last two games and Chicago loses at Green Bay next Sunday. They can earn the No. 1 seed in the NFC if they win out, the Bears lose to the Packers next weekend and the Falcons lose to the Saints Monday night and the Panthers on Jan. 2"

Just how important is this first round bye to the birds? Well, historically it makes no difference. As many Giants and Cowboys fans like to constantly remind us, as they tend to live their lives in the past tense, the Eagles haven't won a Super Bowl. We all know how the first round bye ended up in 2004 when the team finished the regular season 13-3 and had the highest powered offense in the league.

In my opinion, I don't think this team needs a first round bye, or home field advantage throughout to reach the Super Bowl. Our offense, or Michael Vick however you want to look at it, strikes fear into just about every defense in the NFL (Ex - 28 points in 7 minutes against NYG's #1 ranked defense). In fact, I think playing in a hostile atmosphere might even be good for this team to get on a roll. I have always been big on the theory that it isn't necessarily the best teams that are able to make playoff runs, but the teams who carry momentum into the post-season by finishing strong. Just ask the 2007 New York Giants who finished the regular season 10-6, but won 3 road playoff games en route to a Super Bowl victory. Ugh, still makes me sick. But then I think about Eli Manning's 7 year $107 million contract and it makes me smile and giggle. So its all good.

Week 16 Picks

Here's my line for week 16...

Pittsburgh, Dallas, New England, NY Jets, Baltimore, Kansas City, San Francisco, Jacksonville, Miami, Indianapolis, Houston, San Diego, NY Giants, Tampa Bay, New Orleans

Biggest question mark games to watch in my mind is the Jets @ Chicago, Indy @ Oakland, and of course New Orleans @ Atlanta.

Jets (10-4) @ Chicago (10-4)
Should be a pretty good battle between two 10-4 teams looking to gain momentum towards the playoffs. I don't know about all of you, but I am just not sold on Chicago as a contender, let alone making it out of the NFC playoffs. Take a look at their schedule. If you were to give Chicago a marquee win, it would have to be the game they stole from the Eagles, a home game in which they escaped with a 5 point victory after playing their first (and I believe only) game this season which they didnt commit a turnover. Lance Briggs was quoted as saying the win over the Eagles was their "statement game". Yea, I would hope so because they have beat up on some very poor teams for the rest of their wins. And, if it werent for a late James Jones fumble on Monday Night Football, the Bears wouldnt even have another win over a team with a winning record, for THE WHOLE YEAR. Doesnt sound right does it? Well believe it. The Bears have wins over only 2 teams with winning records. And in addition to that, two of their four losses came from a 5-9 Washington team and a 6-8 Seattle team, where both games were played at Soldier Field. Super Bowl contender? I don't see it. For that reason alone, I'm taking the Jets in this game even though Chicago will be playing at home. You simply can't lose two games at home to terrible teams and still be considered a favorite.

Indy (8-6) @ Oakland (7-7)
I was so tempted to pick Oakland in this AFC matchup. I feel like the timing is right for Oakland to pull of an upset: home game, still alive in the division, coming off a big come from behind win last week. Unfortunately for the Raiders, they have this other little thing going against them. They're the Raiders. That fact alone convinces me that there is no way they pull an upset of Peyton Manning and Co. as they work the kinks out of their offense. The Colts are in an interesting spot this year. Much different feeling around that team considering they have cruised into the playoffs the last, what 10 years? Usually this is the time the media is hounding them for resting their starters and not going for an undefeated season. Will playing a full regular season come back to bite the Colts in the long-run? I'm not so sure. I am sure that it won't happen this week, because lets us not all forget, it is the Raiders.

New Orleans (10-4) @ Atlanta (12-2)
Hands down game of the week. It's a perfect storm.

• division rivals
• Monday Night Football prime time
• defending super bowl champions on verge of losing their own division
• the Saints are arguably playing the better football, but the line has moved from -1.5 for Atlanta to -3.5

I give the edge to the Saints, high scoring game, 34 - 20.

Going to be an awesome weekend in the NFL and haven't even mentioned the Eagles yet. Bring on the snow.

Best returner of all time?

I was reading an article on PFT (ProFootball Talk) commenting on Devin Hester's record breaking punt return and it got me thinking. That guy Desean Jackson isnt a bad punt returner himself. The numbers are a little skewed because Hester not only returned punts, but also some kicks as well. But, if you look at just punt returns through the first 3 years of their careers, the numbers show there isn't really that much of a drop-off between the two gunners.

Devin Hester career (3 seasons)

121 returns

1,449 yards

11.9 average/return

7 TD's

Desean Jackson career (3 seasons)

99 returns

1,112 yards

11.2 average/return

4 TD's

In those same 3 seasons, Jackson has 169 receptions for 3,100 yards and 17 TD's to Hester's 71 receptions for 964 yards and 6 TD's. Hard to use this as an argument point though as Hester came out of Miami primarily as a return man. He did play CB and sparingly on offense, but didnt record an official reception until his second year in the league. Regardless, Hester is still one of the most exciting players in the game and why Chicago would EVER stop letting him return kicks is beyond me. If you havent seen this Hester clip already, I suggest you watch it. No, that is not a video game.

Bringing it back

So, I'm going to skip the apology for not keeping up on the posting, cause I'm not sorry. I will say that I hope to do a much better job this time around. Please, for the few of you that might still be reading, feel free to leave comments/opinions/criticism it actually helps remind me to not be a jackass and keep at it. Obviously there has been a lot going on since I last checked in. Lets go about it like this...

Phillies -
Wow.  Is there really anything else you can say about the Phillies since their less than gracious exit from the playoffs courtesy of the eventual World Series champion San Francisco Giants. I could, and may, do a post about the NLCS as a whole, but for now lets focus on the present. More specifically, Clifton Phifer Lee. Again, wow. Just wow. Who saw that coming? Unless your name is Jayson Stark, you didn't see it coming. Obviously, myself along with the Phillies fanbase is ecstatic for what on paper is easily the most dominant rotation in the history of baseball. And of course, the cherry on top was the fact Mr. Lee turned down a significant amount of money from the Yankees in order to return to Philadelphia. What, you might ask, was my favorite part of the Cliff Lee fallout? Well, besides the Phils having the best rotation in baseball, is the slew of NY media reports I read downplaying the fact they just got fu**ing roasted. (Clearly an Idiot, Clearly delusional). To rub it in, Yankees just got hit with $18 mill in luxury tax. Haaahaaa.

Eagles -
There's only a few things to really say about the birds right now, and I can probably sum it up quickly for you. One, Mike Vick. Two, Desean Jackson. Concerns? Sure, there are concerns. Their defense has been less then average on many occasions. But, they have something that no other team in the NFL has. Mike Vick. He's going to find a way to win, bottom line. I really dont think there is anything else that needs to be addressed at this point. Well maybe I could throw in a little eat sh*t Giants.

Flyers -
Through 35 games this season the flyboys are 22-8-5, good for the best record in the NHL. Not too shabby I'd say, especially given they are only 1-3 in shootouts. I havent been able to catch as many games recently as I did in the beginning of the season, but if you watch one game you'll understand how impressive this team is. They are stacked at the forward position led by Claude Giroux who has really exploded into a b0nafide star. One of the most telling statistics in my mind is the fact the Flyers have only two players in the top 25 in Points in the entire NHL (Giroux 31, Richards 32). That means they arent relying on one player, a la Sidney Crosby, to win them games. Couple that with the emergency of Sergei Bobrovsky the 22 year old rookie from Russia who's tied for the 4th most wins in the NHL (15). It's clear that the Flyers are young, talented, and destined to make some noise this year.

Sixers -
Are they better then last year? Yes. Good enough to be worth mentioning? No. When the Sixers become relevant again, Ill be sure to let you know.

Power outage

So just what exactly has gone wrong with this Phillies offense? I've been hearing the question for about 3 weeks now. Justifiably so. What is not justified is people thinking that this hitting slump is going to last. Simply put, this lineup is faaaaar to potent to remain quiet for an extended period of time. The Phils are 30-26, 2.5 games back from the Braves. This after going 5-11 in their last 16 games. Yet still have hit more home runs then the Braves, Mets, and Marlins and scored only 8 less runs then the Marlins and Mets (25 less then the Braves). Werth and Utley have slumped, there is no denying that. But what are we usually complaining about at this time of the year? Possibly Ryan Howard's low average and strikeout numbers? Well "chur boi" Howard has (only) struck out 61 times, good for 9th most in baseball. But guess what? Out of those top 9 batters, Howard has the highest batting average by about 10 points. Utley has scored 37 runs this year, thats good for 25th in all of baseball. Werth has 37 RBI's, that ranks 31st (btw there's only 1 Met that has more, David Wright with 39, but 69 strikeouts too, ouch). I guess my point is I wish the national media would cease from freaking out every time this offense goes into a nosedive. It has happened over periods of the year in both of the last 2 seasons, they hit mid-June/July and then just start torchinggg people. Werth hit 7 HR's and 23 RBI's in July of 2009, his best month of the season. So how about we all just relax, and hope the Flyers win. If Leighton doesn't start I'm going to have a breakdown. Laviolette knows what he is doing, so I hope he makes the right choice and the flyboys come to play. They sure didnt come out prepared last game, completely embarrassing. And I'm so damn tired of that retarted Amstel Light commercial song they play after they score a goal. It is up to Pronger to stop that nonsense from being played, and he better if the Flyers have a chance at winning.

the staff

Coming into 2010 the only major concern about this Phillies team was clearly the bullpen. Now, not only is the bullpen still a concern, but the rotation is just as much of a problem. Out is Joe Blanton and JA Happ, in is Kyle Kendrick, Jamie Moyer, and even Nelson Figueroa. The sad part is, Figueroa might be the strongest of the scrubs to make an appearance this year. Since signing Figs off of waivers from the Mets he's given us 13 solid innings, including a spot start against Arizona which he won. All Moyer has done is give up 16 runs in 24 innings. Awesome. Guaranteed contract or not, I do not understand the logic of keeping Moyer in the rotation. Granted Kendrick hasn't been that much more spectacular giving up 20 runs in 23 innings. I shutter to think what this teams record would be if we didnt have such a power packed offense. The Phils are still getting killed by the longball, giving up the 7th most in the majors (28 so far).

With Blanton due back Monday, and Happ about to start a rehab assignment, things are starting to look up. But, with both of those guys coming back a new set of problems arises. Who, of the 2 scrubs currently manning the 4th/5th slots, is going to the already weak bullpen? My prediction sees Charlie as slotting Halladay, Hamels, Blanton, Happ, Moyer. Blanton and Happ coming back also presents problems with player options. The team just sent down and recalled Bastardo in the same week after idiot Ryan Madson kicked a chair, essentially wasting one of his minor league options. I'm fairly certain that both Figueroa and Herndon are both out of options, meaning they would have to be placed on waivers and be susceptible to being claimed if they are the odd men out.

Does anyone else think its funny that I just wrote a rant about Phillies pitching and failed to mention Brad Lidge? Well ya, he's back now. So we'll see how that goes.